Collection Analyst/Loss Forcasting - EXL ROLE

Role Summary
Seeking an analytics professional to lead loss forecasting and collections strategy analytics for consumer lending portfolios. The role will focus primarily on delinquency and loss forecasting, portfolio monitoring, reserve support, forecasting model development, and performance attribution while also partnering with Collections teams to improve cure rates, roll rates, recoveries, contact strategies, and operational effectiveness.Responsibilities

• Develop and maintain loss forecasting frameworks using roll-rate, vintage, cash-flow, transition matrix, and expected loss methodologies.
• Forecast delinquency, charge-offs, recoveries, prepayments, and net credit losses across portfolios.
• Perform portfolio monitoring, trend analysis, vintage analysis, segment performance reviews, and risk diagnostics.
• Own forecasting back-testing, model validation, forecast variance analysis, and assumption governance.
• Design collections strategies across early-stage, mid-stage, and late-stage delinquency segments.
• Analyze cure rates, roll rates, liquidation rates, recovery performance, and collections effectiveness.
• Determine whom to contact, when to contact, and through which treatment channel based on risk, expected recovery, and operational constraints.
• Evaluate calling metrics such as RPC rate, contact rate, promise-to-pay rate, kept-promise rate, and agent productivity.
• Build segmentation and prioritization strategies to maximize cures and minimize losses.

Required Skills & Experience

• 5+ years of experience in Credit Risk, Loss Forecasting, Collections Analytics, Portfolio Risk, or Consumer Lending Analytics.
• Strong understanding of delinquency buckets, DPD, roll rates, cure rates, recoveries, charge-offs, and vintage performance.
• Hands-on experience with forecasting techniques including roll-rate, vintage, cash-flow, or expected loss approaches.
• Proficiency in SQL and at least one analytics language such as Python, SAS, or R.
• Experience building dashboards and presenting results to senior stakeholders.
• Strong quantitative, analytical, and problem-solving skills.

Preferred Experience

• Collections strategy optimization and champion-challenger testing.
• Dialer strategy, segmentation, treatment strategy, and collections operations analytics.
• Consumer loans, credit cards, auto lending, BNPL, or unsecured lending portfolios.
• Machine learning or advanced statistical forecasting methods.

Key Metrics Owned

• Loss Forecast Accuracy
• 30+/60+/90+ Delinquency Rates
• Roll Rates and Flow Rates
• Cure Rates
• Charge-off and Recovery Rates
• Collections Productivity Metrics
• Reserve / Allowance Forecast Performance