Forecasting Lead

At Abivax, our purpose is simple: to improve patients' lives. As a global clinical-stage biotechnology company with headquarter in Paris and offices in the United States, we are advancing innovative therapies for people living with chronic inflammatory diseases.

We are looking for talented, purpose-driven individuals who want their work to have a meaningful impact. Every day, we challenge ourselves to ask: "How did I make a patient's life better today?" If that question inspires and motivates you, we invite you to join our team.

Position Summary

The Forecasting Lead will be responsible for developing and maintaining commercial forecasts that inform strategic decision-making across Abivax's portfolio. This individual will serve as the organization's forecasting subject matter expert, providing robust patient-based, revenue, and scenario-based forecasts that support launch readiness, financial planning, resource allocation, and long-range strategic planning.

Reporting to the Head of Commercial Insights & Forecasting, this role will partner closely with Commercial, Finance, Market Access, Medical Affairs, HEOR, and Business Development to evaluate opportunities, assess risks and uncertainties, and translate evolving market dynamics into actionable forecast assumptions. The Forecasting Lead will play a critical role in supporting Abivax's commercialization efforts by ensuring leadership has a clear view of future market potential and business performance. This role is expected to build upon industry best practices in forecasting, integrated analytics, and commercial planning

Key Responsibilities / Essential Functions

Commercial Forecasting

• Develop and maintain patient-based commercial forecasts for Abivax's lead assets and future pipeline opportunities.
• Build short-term, annual, and long-range forecasts to support commercial planning and organizational decision-making.
• Model patient flow, diagnosis rates, treatment eligibility, market share, persistence, adherence, and therapy uptake dynamics.
• Continuously refine forecast assumptions based on emerging market data, competitive developments, access trends, and commercial performance.
• Ensure all forecasts are transparent, clearly documented, and supported by sound business rationale.

Scenario Planning & Strategic Assessments

• Develop scenario analyses to evaluate key business risks, opportunities, and market uncertainties.
• Assess the impact of clinical, regulatory, pricing, reimbursement, competitive, and market events on future business performance.
• Support launch planning through sensitivity analyses and alternative market scenarios.
• Conduct commercial opportunity assessments for lifecycle management initiatives, new indications, and business development opportunities.
• Partner with leadership to evaluate strategic options and prioritize investments.

Forecast Governance & Planning Support

• Lead forecast update cycles and establish processes for regular forecast review and governance.
• Coordinate cross-functional forecast assumption reviews with Commercial, Market Access, Medical Affairs, Finance, and Executive Leadership.
• Ensure alignment between commercial forecasts, financial planning assumptions, and strategic business objectives.
• Present forecast methodologies, assumptions, risks, and outcomes to senior stakeholders.
• Support annual planning, long-range planning, and budgeting processes.

Market & Competitive Intelligence Integration

• Monitor market dynamics, epidemiology updates, treatment trends, and competitive developments that impact forecast assumptions.
• Partner with Commercial Insights colleagues to integrate market research findings and competitive intelligence into forecasting models.
• Evaluate clinical data releases, regulatory milestones, and market events for potential business impact.
• Translate market developments into actionable forecast recommendations and strategic implications.

Analytics & Business Performance Evaluation

• Analyze actual business performance relative to forecast expectations and identify key drivers of variance.
• Develop business performance assessments to support executive decision-making.
• Perform patient funnel analyses and market evolution assessments to improve forecast accuracy.
• Identify leading indicators and key performance metrics that inform future forecast assumptions.
• Support ad hoc analytical projects as needed by Commercial Leadership and Finance.

Cross-Functional Collaboration

• Partner closely with Commercial, Market Access, Medical Affairs, Finance, Corporate Strategy, and Business Development to support critical business decisions.
• Partner with Field Sales Leadership on forecast-related impacts to IC plans
• Participate in launch readiness planning and commercialization strategy discussions.
• Support preparation of executive presentations, Investor Relations external forecasting considerations, Board materials, and strategic planning discussions.
• Serve as a trusted advisor on commercial forecasting methodologies and best practices

Qualifications

Required

• Bachelor's degree in Business, Economics, Finance, Statistics, Mathematics, Data Science, Public Health, or a related discipline.
• 7+ years of experience in pharmaceutical or biotechnology forecasting, analytics, market research, commercial strategy, finance, or related functions.
• 3+ years of direct commercial forecasting experience within biopharmaceuticals.
• Experience developing patient-based forecasting models for pre-launch and/or commercial-stage products.
• Strong quantitative and analytical skills with demonstrated ability to translate complex data into actionable business insights.

Preferred

• Advanced degree (MBA, MPH, MS, PhD, or equivalent).
• Experience in immunology, gastroenterology, specialty pharmaceuticals, or rare disease markets.
• Experience supporting launch planning and commercialization activities.
• Familiarity with specialty pharmacy, claims, epidemiology, and patient-level healthcare data.
• Experience supporting portfolio planning, lifecycle management, or business development assessments.
• Experience working in a fast-paced biotechnology environment

Knowledge, Skills & Competencies

Technical Skills

• Strong expertise in pharmaceutical forecasting methodologies, including patient-based and demand-based forecasting approaches.
• Experience with market sizing, epidemiology modeling, scenario planning, and sensitivity analyses.
• Working knowledge of pharmaceutical data sources including IQVIA/Komodo, NBRx, claims data, specialty pharmacy data, epidemiology sources, and market research data.
• Advanced Excel modeling skills.
• Experience with Tableau, Power BI, SQL, Python, or similar analytical tools preferred.
• Understanding of specialty market dynamics, payer access considerations, and commercial launch metrics.

Core Competencies

• Strong strategic thinking and business acumen.
• Excellent analytical and problem-solving abilities.
• Ability to communicate complex concepts clearly to technical and non-technical audiences.
• Strong attention to detail and commitment to analytical rigor.
• Ability to influence stakeholders across multiple functions.
• Strong project management and organizational skills.
• Comfortable operating in ambiguous and rapidly evolving environments.
• Collaborative mindset with a focus on partnership and execution.
• High degree of intellectual curiosity, accountability, and integrity.

This job description is intended to describe the general responsibilities and qualifications for this position and is not an exhaustive list of all duties. Responsibilities may change based on business needs, and Abivax reserves the right to modify this job description at any time.

Reasonable accommodation will be provided to qualified individuals with disabilities to enable them to perform the essential functions of the position.

Abivax is an Equal Opportunity Employer and makes all employment decisions without regard to any characteristic protected by applicable federal, state, or local law.